India Crude Oil Imports 2026: Russia 50% Share as Hormuz Closes & Prices Spike

India Crude Oil Imports in 2026: Russia Maintains Up to 50% Share Amid Hormuz Disruptions and Elevated Prices

India, the world’s third-largest crude oil importer, demonstrated strong supply chain resilience following the geopolitical escalation in West Asia. After the events of late February 2026 and the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Indian refiners quickly adjusted sourcing strategies. India Crude Oil Imports requirement remain stable at 5.5–5.6 million barrels per day (mbpd), while domestic production continues to cover only about 10–12% of needs.

Steady Demand and Limited Domestic Output

India’s refinery throughput, which reflects actual oil consumption needs, stands at approximately 5.5–5.6 mbpd. This is expected to approach 6 mbpd by the end of 2026, supported by robust economic growth. Domestic crude production, however, averaged just 520,000–550,000 barrels per day in FY 2025-26, with full-year output projected at around 28 million metric tonnes (MMT). This marks another year of decline due to maturing fields, reinforcing the country’s import dependence of 88–91%.

Pre-Crisis India Crude Oil Imports Profile

Prior to the February escalation (Iran War), India Crude Oil Imports were 4.9–5.2 mbpd (20–21 MMT per month) from over 40 countries. Russia already accounted for a significant portion with competitive pricing, alongside traditional suppliers like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and growing contributions from the US and Africa. Also Read: Middle East Energy Shock: Missiles and Drone Strikes Disrupt Gulf Oil Network

Import Realignment After Hormuz Disruptions

The temporary disruption in the Strait of Hormuz led to a 13% decline in India Crude Oil Imports to 4.51–4.57 mbpd in March. Refiners adapted swiftly through diversified routes and diplomatic measures, including US sanctions waivers.

Key shifts included:

• Russia emerged as the dominant supplier, providing 2.14–2.25 mbpd — accounting for 47–50% of total imports (approximately 9.3 MMT for the month). This nearly doubled from February levels, delivered via safer Arctic and Atlantic routes.
• Venezuela contributed minimally in March but ramped up in April to around 1.7 MMT (~0.42 mbpd), serving as an alternative source of heavy crude.
• The remaining ~50% (2.26 mbpd) came from other sources. Middle East/Gulf volumes dropped sharply by 61% to 1.18 mbpd (26% share), limited to bypass routes such as Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu and UAE’s Fujairah terminals. Saudi Arabia became the second-largest supplier, followed by African nations like Angola, the US, and Latin America. This pushed OPEC’s overall share in India’s imports to a record low of ~29%.

These adjustments, supported by strategic petroleum reserves (providing weeks of buffer), ensured refineries continued operating at high capacity with minimal disruption.

Price and Cost Impacts Post-February 28 Developments

The escalation triggered a notable rise in global oil prices. Brent crude increased by around 8–9% in the initial days, later peaking near or above $100–120/bbl amid supply concerns. India’s crude oil basket price reached $113.57/bbl by mid-March, with spot market pressures pushing effective costs higher in some cases. A sustained $1/bbl increase typically adds roughly ₹16,000 crore to India’s annual import bill. Discounted Russian barrels (often $10–15 below benchmarks) and new Venezuelan supplies helped mitigate some of the impact. Retail petrol and diesel prices saw only modest adjustments (~2%), thanks to government measures and refinery margins, though broader effects appeared in inflation, rupee movements, and costs for petrochemicals and fertilisers. By late April 2026, partial easing of tensions and alternative routing helped stabilise the situation, though prices remain elevated compared to pre-February levels. Also Read: India Urea Stocks Stable Despite Hormuz Tensions and Supply Chain Concerns

Outlook

India’s rapid pivot to alternative suppliers highlights the success of its long-term diversification strategy. As demand grows toward 6 mbpd, continued focus on boosting domestic exploration, expanding strategic reserves, and strengthening non-traditional partnerships will be key to long-term energy security. While higher prices pose fiscal and inflationary challenges, the country’s ability to maintain supply stability underscores its maturing role in global energy markets.