Indonesia Military Modernisation: Why Jakarta Is Building a Stronger Military for an Uncertain Indo-Pacific
For decades, Indonesia pursued a cautious defence policy anchored in its long-standing bebas aktif (“free and active”) foreign policy, avoiding military alliances while maintaining cordial relations with competing global powers. Today, however, the strategic environment surrounding the world’s largest archipelagic nation is changing rapidly.
Under President Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia has embarked on one of Southeast Asia’s most ambitious military modernisation programmes. The objective is not to prepare for conventional war but to strengthen deterrence, protect its vast maritime domain and preserve strategic autonomy amid intensifying competition across the Indo-Pacific.
The catalyst behind Indonesia military modernisation lies hundreds of kilometres north of Jakarta—in the North Natuna Sea.
China’s Grey-Zone Challenge in the North Natuna Sea
Unlike Vietnam or the Philippines, Indonesia is not a claimant in the territorial disputes over the Spratly or Paracel Islands. Nevertheless, Jakarta increasingly finds itself confronting China’s expanding maritime assertiveness.
The North Natuna Sea forms part of Indonesia’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Beijing, however, continues to assert expansive claims through its so-called Nine-Dash Line, leading to repeated incursions by Chinese fishing fleets escorted by Coast Guard vessels and, occasionally, naval ships.
These are classic “grey-zone” operations—actions designed to gradually alter the status quo without triggering open conflict.
For Indonesia, the issue is less about disputed islands and more about protecting sovereign rights over fisheries, offshore energy resources and one of the world’s busiest maritime regions.
Rather than responding through escalation, Jakarta has adopted a dual-track strategy: maintaining diplomatic engagement with Beijing while steadily strengthening its maritime deterrence.
Why Indonesia Is Modernising Its Armed Forces
China’s maritime activities are only one part of a broader strategic calculation.
Indonesia’s armed forces operate across more than 17,000 islands spanning critical sea lanes that connect the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Protecting this immense maritime geography demands modern naval, air and surveillance capabilities.
Much of Indonesia’s existing military inventory dates back decades. Ageing fighter aircraft, limited long-range strike capability and gaps in maritime surveillance have prompted successive governments to prioritise defence upgrades. Under President Prabowo, a former Defence Minister and Army General, that process has accelerated considerably.
Jakarta aims to gradually increase defence spending from roughly 0.7 percent of GDP towards around 1-1.5 percent over the coming years. The investment extends beyond acquiring new weapons. It includes developing domestic defence industries, expanding infrastructure, improving logistics and investing in human capital.
Indonesia’s strategic objective is straightforward: build credible deterrence without becoming dependent on any single external power.
A Multi-Vector Procurement Strategy
Perhaps the most distinctive feature of Indonesia military modernisation is its remarkably diversified procurement policy.
Rather than relying on one strategic partner, Jakarta is sourcing advanced military systems from multiple countries while insisting on technology transfer, local production and industrial cooperation wherever possible.
The Indonesian Air Force currently operates American F-16 Fighting Falcons, Russian Su-27 and Su-30 fighters, British Hawk aircraft and South Korean T-50i trainers. French Rafale fighters are gradually entering service, significantly enhancing Indonesia’s multirole capabilities.
At the same time, Turkey has emerged as an increasingly important defence partner. Indonesia has signed agreements for 48 KAAN fifth-generation stealth fighters, becoming the programme’s first export customer. The project includes local assembly, maintenance facilities, training infrastructure and technology transfer through PT Dirgantara Indonesia.
Turkey’s role extends well beyond combat aircraft. Indonesia is also expanding cooperation on advanced unmanned systems, including the Anka medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) drone and the Kızılelma unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV). The growing importance of drones in modern warfare—from persistent intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) to precision strikes and maritime monitoring—has fundamentally reshaped military planning. For an archipelagic nation spread across more than 17,000 islands, such platforms offer a cost-effective means of strengthening maritime domain awareness and rapidly detecting and responding to grey-zone incursions without deploying expensive manned aircraft.
Jakarta has also explored acquiring Pakistan’s JF-17 Thunder fighter, although discussions remain at an early stage. This deliberate diversification reflects Indonesia’s determination to maintain strategic flexibility while avoiding excessive dependence on any single supplier.
Indonesia’s commitment to the KAAN programme is particularly noteworthy because it extends beyond a conventional procurement contract. By participating in local assembly, technology transfer and industrial collaboration, Jakarta is effectively investing in the development of a fifth-generation fighter that is still undergoing flight testing and has yet to enter operational service. Reports suggest that Indonesia’s financial commitment could eventually run into several billion US dollars over the programme’s lifecycle.
Turkey has also sought cooperation from several friendly nations, including Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Malaysia and Saudi Arabia, to expand the programme’s industrial and financial base. While these partnerships strengthen the project’s long-term viability, Indonesia’s early commitment also reflects a calculated willingness to invest in future capability rather than rely solely on mature platforms already available on the global market. Whether this proves to be a strategically rewarding investment will ultimately depend on the KAAN programme meeting its technological and production milestones.
Building Maritime Deterrence
Indonesia’s modernisation is centred on protecting its maritime approaches rather than projecting power far beyond its shores.
One of the most significant developments is the acquisition of India’s BrahMos supersonic cruise missile system. Initially intended for land-based coastal defence batteries, BrahMos provides Indonesia with a highly credible anti-ship capability capable of rapidly engaging hostile surface vessels operating near its Exclusive Economic Zone.
The system strengthens Indonesia’s “sea denial” strategy, raising the cost of coercive actions without requiring a large offensive fleet.
The joint development of Sabang Port represents an even broader strategic outcome than the BrahMos agreement. Located at the western entrance of the Strait of Malacca, Sabang occupies one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints through which a substantial share of global trade and energy shipments passes. For Indonesia, the project enhances economic development, port infrastructure, maritime security and the ability to monitor activity around its western maritime approaches. For India, Sabang complements the emerging Great Nicobar transshipment and strategic infrastructure project near the eastern entrance of the Strait, creating a mutually beneficial maritime partnership that strengthens logistics, naval access, maritime domain awareness and resilience across the eastern Indian Ocean. Together, the two projects improve the strategic depth of both countries while supporting a stable and secure Indo-Pacific.
Strengthening Air Superiority
Alongside BrahMos, Indonesia has also selected India’s Astra beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile for integration with its Sukhoi Su-30 fighter fleet.
The Astra missile significantly enhances Indonesia’s ability to intercept hostile aircraft operating over its maritime zones while extending the effectiveness of an already familiar combat platform.
Meanwhile, Jakarta continues discussions with South Korea regarding advanced air defence systems and has expanded cooperation with Turkey in unmanned aerial systems, including the Anka and Kizilelma drone programmes.
Together, these acquisitions create a layered defensive architecture capable of monitoring, deterring and responding to both conventional and grey-zone threats.
Strategic Autonomy Above All
Indonesia’s procurement decisions are guided by a consistent strategic philosophy rather than shifting geopolitical alignments.
Despite deepening defence cooperation with India, Turkey, France and the United States, Jakarta continues to maintain constructive ties with Russia, particularly in energy, military training and legacy equipment support. At the same time, China remains one of Indonesia’s largest trading and investment partners.
This balancing act reflects Indonesia’s enduring commitment to strategic autonomy.
Rather than choosing sides in intensifying great-power competition, Jakarta seeks to maximise national interests by engaging multiple partners simultaneously while strengthening indigenous defence capabilities through technology transfer and local manufacturing.
It is a pragmatic approach shaped by historical experience, including previous arms embargoes and the vulnerabilities associated with dependence on a single supplier.
India’s Expanding Strategic Role
India has become an increasingly important pillar of Indonesia’s evolving security architecture.
The BrahMos missile agreement represents one of India’s most significant defence export successes and reflects growing confidence in India’s indigenous military technology. The addition of Astra missiles further deepens defence-industrial cooperation while expanding operational interoperability between the two countries.
Beyond defence procurement, cooperation now encompasses maritime security, coast guard coordination, information sharing through the Information Fusion Centre -Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR), critical minerals, digital payments, infrastructure and the joint development of Sabang Port.
These initiatives strengthen both countries’ shared interest in maintaining a free, open and rules-based Indo-Pacific.
Challenges of a Diverse Arsenal
Indonesia’s ambitious procurement strategy is not without risks.
Operating aircraft, missiles, ships and defence systems sourced from the United States, Europe, Russia, Turkey, India, South Korea and potentially Pakistan creates significant logistical and operational complexity.
Maintenance, spare parts, pilot training, software integration, ammunition compatibility and long-term sustainment all become more challenging within such a diverse inventory.
Successfully integrating these systems into a coherent joint force will ultimately determine whether Indonesia’s modernisation programme achieves its full potential.
A New Maritime Power in Southeast Asia
Indonesia is not preparing for territorial expansion or conventional conflict. Instead, it is building a balanced force capable of countering grey-zone coercion through a combination of advanced missiles, modern combat aircraft, unmanned systems and stronger maritime surveillance. It is preparing to prevent coercion.
The country’s defence transformation reflects a sober assessment of an increasingly contested maritime environment where grey-zone operations, economic competition and strategic rivalry increasingly shape regional security.
Under President Prabowo Subianto, Jakarta is pursuing a balanced strategy that combines stronger deterrence, diversified defence partnerships and indigenous industrial development while preserving the strategic autonomy that has long defined Indonesian foreign policy.
As Southeast Asia enters a new era of geopolitical competition, Indonesia is steadily transforming from a cautious maritime state into one of the Indo-Pacific’s most capable middle powers, determined to safeguard its sovereignty while preserving the strategic autonomy that has long defined its foreign policy.
Also Read:
The Battle for the Indian Ocean:
✔ Part I: The Ocean That Powers the World
✔ Part II: America, Russia and India’s Geographic Advantage
